Dubai Off-Plan Market Index: October 2026
Oct 7, 2026
Short answer: On 7 October 2026 the SKID board tracked 1,000 UAE off-plan launches, 904 of them in Dubai. 584 of those launches have a published handover in 2027 or 2028. Of the 253 launches SKID has scored, only 2 rate "strong"; 155 rate "worth comparing" and 96 rate "caution". Buyers are paying more attention to price evidence: public data shows Q3 2026 Dubai home-sale values fell 47% year on year, and S&P Global expects a gradual price correction, with apartments hit harder than villas.
This is the first edition of the SKID Dubai Off-Plan Index. We plan to publish it monthly so buyers, journalists and analysts have one dated reference for how large the launch market is, when it hands over, and how area prices compare with Dubai Land Department (DLD) closed sales.
Data as of 7 October 2026.
How many off-plan projects are on the market in the UAE right now?
The SKID board listed 1,000 launches on 7 October 2026. By emirate:
| Emirate | Launches on SKID board | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Dubai | 904 | 90.4% |
| Ras Al Khaimah | 64 | 6.4% |
| Abu Dhabi | 29 | 2.9% |
| Sharjah | 3 | 0.3% |
| Ajman | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1,000 | 100% |
Source: SKID launch board, 7 Oct 2026.
A launch on the SKID board is a project being marketed off-plan. It is not the same as DLD's registered supply pipeline, and the count doesn't tell you how many units each project has.
How many launches are under AED 1 million?
Launches by starting price (cumulative):
| Starting price up to | Launches |
|---|---|
| AED 750,000 | 93 |
| AED 1,000,000 | 209 |
| AED 1,500,000 | 410 |
| AED 2,000,000 | 570 |
Source: SKID launch board, 7 Oct 2026.
That means 430 of 1,000 launches (43%) start above AED 2 million, which is the property value the UAE uses for the real-estate golden visa (see GDRFA Dubai). A starting price is the cheapest unit in a project, so many projects that start below AED 2M also sell units above it.
When will these projects hand over?
| Published handover year | Launches |
|---|---|
| 2025 (already due) | 36 |
| 2026 | 137 |
| 2027 | 350 |
| 2028 | 234 |
| 2029 | 142 |
| 2030 | 10 |
| 2031 | 4 |
| Not stated / other | 87 |
Source: SKID launch board, 7 Oct 2026. "Not stated / other" is 1,000 minus the sum of the listed years.
2027 is the peak year on the board, with 350 launches (35%). 36 launches are still marketed with a 2025 handover date that has already passed. Projects with a 2026 handover (137) have under three months left in the year.
Other public sources tell a similar story. Fitch forecast up to a 15% price decline as roughly 120,000 units were scheduled for handover in 2025–2026 (The National, May 2025). S&P Global expects Dubai's residential stock, especially apartments, to grow by about 20% over the next two years (Khaleej Times, 7 Oct 2026).
How does SKID rate the current launches?
SKID scores a launch only when there is enough evidence. On 7 October 2026:
| SKID band | Launches | Share of scored |
|---|---|---|
| Strong | 2 | 0.8% |
| Worth comparing | 155 | 61.3% |
| Caution | 96 | 37.9% |
| Not recommended | 0 | 0% |
| Scored total | 253 | 100% |
| Not yet scored (estimated) | ~747 | — |
Source: SKID launch board, 7 Oct 2026. The unscored figure is 1,000 minus 253, so it is an estimate rather than a direct count.
The two "strong" launches were AZIZI "Azizi Emerald" (8.3/10, Dubai Creek) and REPORTAGE PROPERTIES "Reportage Tower" (8.0/10, Al Maryah Island, Abu Dhabi). Neither had enough ready DLD sales in its community for a price comparison. Both scores rest on factors such as supply, delivery risk and developer, not on entry price. Read the full analysis on each project page before acting on a score.
Our read: fewer than 1 in 100 scored launches clears the "strong" bar. Most launches only make sense after you compare their price with nearby closed sales.
What are DLD-based sale prices and yields by area this month?
| Area | SKID area sale price per sq ft (DLD-based, AED) | Gross yield | Launches on board | Ready apartment median AED/sqft (n) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palm Jumeirah | 3,288.0 | 3.74% | 14 | not in this edition |
| Downtown Dubai | 2,537.2 | 5.28% | 8 | 2,337.5 (1,278) |
| Dubai Creek Harbour | 2,465.1 | 5.12% | 19 | 2,301.8 (1,246) |
| Dubai Hills Estate | 2,390.2 | 5.83% | 13 | 2,398.4 (689) |
| Business Bay | 2,327.9 | 4.74% | 49 | 1,771.0 (1,727) |
| Dubai Marina | 1,857.9 | 5.70% | 22 | 1,779.6 (1,686) |
| Motor City | 1,672.3 | 3.91% | 13 | not in this edition |
| Jumeirah Village Triangle | 1,620.8 | 5.42% | 31 | not in this edition |
| Arjan | 1,519.1 | 5.38% | 64 | 1,310.8 (1,002) |
| Town Square | 1,453.4 | 5.57% | 4 | not in this edition |
| Jumeirah Village Circle | 1,424.1 | 6.25% | 81 | 1,259.4 (3,656) |
| Al Furjan | 1,339.4 | 6.60% | 17 | not in this edition |
| Dubai Sports City | 1,201.6 | 6.02% | 15 | not in this edition |
Source: SKID area data, 7 Oct 2026. "n" is the number of ready apartment closed sales behind the median. Ready medians for six areas weren't available for this edition.
Busy areas with no price figure yet: Dubai Islands (67 launches), Dubailand (42), Dubai South (32), International City (19), Meydan (18), Al Jaddaf (13), JLT (7), Dubai Silicon Oasis (5) and Emaar Beachfront (4). For each of these, SKID's DLD-based area price per sq ft wasn't available. Dubai Islands and Dubai South have zero ready apartment sales on record in SKID's DLD data. In these areas you can't check a launch price against closed ready sales, so a buyer is relying on the developer's price alone.
What happened in the wider Dubai market?
From public sources (not SKID data):
- H1 2026: DLD recorded AED 286.44bn of property sales across 86,000 transactions. Off-plan made up 58,840 sales (68.4% by count) worth AED 139.75bn (Cresco, citing DLD; Jalili Real Estate).
- Q3 2026: residential sales of AED 72.6bn across 34,000 transactions, down 47% in value and 38% in volume year on year. Off-plan was 72% of purchases and 65% of value (Cavendish Maxwell via The National, 7 Oct 2026).
- Prices: S&P Global, citing industry reports, says prices fell 5%–15% between the end of 2025 and September 2026. It expects a "gradual price correction rather than a rapid price decline" (same source).
- Busiest off-plan apartment areas in H1 2026: Dubai South (7,306 transactions), Dubai Residence Complex (3,408), JVC (3,055), Dubai Islands (2,891), Majan (2,402) (Cavendish Maxwell via Zawya).
Two of the five busiest off-plan areas, Dubai South and Dubai Islands, are also two of the areas where SKID has no ready-sale data. Much of 2026's off-plan buying is happening where a fair price is hardest to check.
What should a buyer do with this index?
- Check the handover year against the pipeline. A 2027 handover lands in the busiest year on the board.
- Ask for evidence in areas with no ready sales. In Dubai Islands or Dubai South, ask the developer or agent which DLD transactions justify the price.
- Treat "worth comparing" literally. Most scored launches are in this band. Compare their price per square foot with the ready median for the area before you reserve.
- Use the project page. Every launch on skid.homes/off-plan shows which factors were scored and which were left out, and why.
FAQ
How many off-plan projects are there in Dubai in October 2026? The SKID board tracked 904 Dubai off-plan launches on 7 October 2026, out of 1,000 across the UAE. This counts marketed launches, not DLD-registered projects or units.
Which year has the most off-plan handovers in Dubai? On the SKID board, 2027: 350 launches, followed by 2028 with 234.
What share of Dubai off-plan launches are a good buy? Of 253 launches SKID has scored, 2 (0.8%) rated "strong", 155 "worth comparing" and 96 "caution". A score is not a buy signal. It summarises the evidence available.
Are Dubai property prices falling in 2026? S&P Global, citing industry reports, says prices fell 5%–15% from the end of 2025 to September 2026 and expects a gradual correction. SKID plans to track changes in its own area figures in future editions.
How often is the SKID Off-Plan Index updated? It is planned as a monthly series. Each edition keeps its own dated URL so figures can be cited.
Methodology & sources
- SKID data: taken from SKID's launch board and area data on 7 October 2026. That covers counts by emirate, score band, handover year and starting price; SKID's area sale price per sq ft (DLD-based), gross yield and launch count per area; and the median price per sq ft and sample size (n) of ready apartment closed sales per area.
- What the numbers are not: the launch count is not a DLD supply pipeline. The area sale price per sq ft and the ready-apartment median are separate SKID measures. The exact definition and date window of each measure will be documented on SKID's methodology page.
- Gaps in this edition: ready medians for six areas weren't available. Nine areas with active launches have no DLD-based price figure yet. The unscored count is an estimate.
- External sources: DLD via Cresco, Jalili, The National, Khaleej Times, Zawya/Cavendish Maxwell, GDRFA.
- Independence: SKID does not sell ratings. No developer or broker pays for a score.
Related on SKID
- All off-plan launches on the SKID board
- Is off-plan more expensive than ready property in Dubai?
- Dubai rental yields by area in 2026
Verified SKID Community & Registry Benchmark Data
| Community | Emirate | SKID Community Score | Value / Family | Typical Gross Yield | Median Closed Sale PSF | Primary Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jumeirah Village Circle | Dubai | 8.3 / 10 | 9.5 / 8.0 | 7.8% | AED 1,424 / sq ft (DLD) | High-value mid-market living with strong rental demand |
| Jumeirah Lake Towers | Dubai | 7.3 / 10 | 8.0 / 6.0 | 6.8% | Verified via DLD | Metro-linked lakeside towers at a Marina discount |
| Downtown Dubai | Dubai | 6.8 / 10 | 4.5 / 5.5 | 4.8% | AED 2,654 / sq ft (DLD) | Iconic urban core — lifestyle first, yield second |
| Dubai Marina | Dubai | 7.8 / 10 | 7.5 / 6.0 | 5.5% | AED 1,911 / sq ft (DLD) | Waterfront lifestyle with tram / metro connectivity |
| Palm Jumeirah | Dubai | 6.5 / 10 | 3.5 / 6.5 | 4.8% | AED 3,287 / sq ft (DLD) | Trophy waterfront living with unmatched prestige |
| Dubai Hills Estate | Dubai | 8.3 / 10 | 8.0 / 9.0 | 5.2% | AED 2,377 / sq ft (DLD) | Top-tier family suburb with strong amenities and parks |